We evaluate the effect of a cash transfer to households forecast to experience extreme flooding in Bangladesh five days before the flood peak based on hydrological modelling. We find
that this ‘anticipatory’ transfer improved welfare during and three months after the flooding,
reduced asset loss and supported early recovery. Early cash also increased the choice set of
actions available to households, thereby altering the flood impacts at a critical time juncture.
Benefits accrue in the months before a conventional humanitarian response, highlighting the
gains from acting early. Acting one day earlier near the flood peak is welfare improving.
Keywords:
anticipatory humanitarian action
,climate change
,finance and microfinance
