What's New? in Structural Macro-Modelling of the South African Economy

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What’s New was last updated in November, 2008

  1. Janine Aron and John Muellbauer have completed the Final Report and outputs for the ESRC grant Grant RES-000-22-2066, August, 2008: “New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components.

  2. Inflation modeling and forecasting: five new 2008 papers are available.

  3. “South African Economic Policy Under Democracy”:

    Book:  Janine Aron, Brian Kahn (SA Reserve Bank) and Geeta Kingdon have edited a 12-chapter book on “South African Economic Policy under Democracy”, which will be published in March 2009, by Oxford University Press. (To pre-order, or for description and contents).

    The editorial royalties have been donated to the Buskaid Trust, a musical charity in Soweto, dedicated to teaching stringed instruments to
    local township children. Preface in the book: Music and Economics.

    Journal Special Issue: Janine Aron and Geeta Kingdon have guest co-edited a Special Issue of six papers on “South African Economic Policy Under Democracy”, in the Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press (2007).

  4. Trade openness and inflation: a new paper measures openness for South Africa, with application to its role in determining wholesale price inflation:

    Aron and Muellbauer. “Inflation dynamics and trade openness.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-11 (also CEPR, London, Discussion Paper 6346) (also VOX)

    Updated downloadable data to 2005 on the quarterly openness/trade liberalisation indicator for South Africa, from the above study.
  1. Personal wealth research: including the construction of a wealth database for the household sector in South Africa, with the South African Reserve Bank:
     
    Muellbauer, J. “Housing and Personal Wealth in a Global Context.” Chapter in James B. Davies (ed.), Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective, UNU-WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford University Press, October, 2008, pages 293-311. (also, United Nations University, WIDER Research Paper 2007-27, November, Helsinki).

    Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and J. Prinsloo. 2008. "Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country: SA, 1975-2005." Chapter 10 in James B. Davies (ed.), Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective, UNU-WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford University Press (October), pages 196-223.

    Aron, Muellbauer and Prinsloo. 2007. " Balance sheet estimates for South Africa's household sector from 1975 to 2005."Working Paper 07/01,Research Department, South African Reserve Bank.

    Aron, Muellbauer and Prinsloo. 2006. “Estimating household-sector wealth in South Africa.”  Quarterly Bulletin, South African Reserve Bank, June, 61-72.

    Aron, Muellbauer and Prinsloo. “Towards Official Balance Sheet Estimates for South Africa’s Household Sector, from 1975 to 2005."CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-09 (also, United Nations University, WIDER Research Paper 2006:99, November, Helsinki).

    Aron and Muellbauer. 2006. "Estimates of Household Sector Wealth for South Africa, 1970-2003." Review of Income and Wealth (International Association for Research in Income and Wealth) 52: 2 285-308, June.

  2. Housing wealth, credit conditions and consumption: John Muellbauer was invited to discuss “Housing, Credit and Consumer Behavior” at the prestigious annual Federal Reserve Bank Symposium at Jackson Hole: Housing, Housing Finance, and Monetary Policy, a Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 30 - September 1, 2007, pages 267-334. Annual series: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Associated research includes:

    Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption in SA.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper (forthcoming, 2008).

    Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and A. Murphy (Oxford). 2008. “Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and UK Consumption.” 2008 European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Milan, Italy, August 27-31, 2008. 

    Aron and Muellbauer. “Housing Wealth,Credit Conditions and Consumption.CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08.

    Aron, Murphy and Muellbauer. 2006. “Housing Wealth and UK Consumption.” Economic Outlook 30 (4): 11 -20, October.