SMMSAE: Publications & Events

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We provide details below of published, forthcoming and working papers, as well as work-in-progress – organised under subject headings; and give details of conferences, seminars and invited lectures in the UK and abroad. Non-technical summaries explain the key findings and policy significance of the research.

I. Papers

INFLATION MODELLING AND FORECASTING

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Some issues in modelling and forecasting inflation in SA.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper 7132, February, 2009, http://www.cepr.org; and also CSAE Working Paper Series WPS/2009-01, Department of Economics,Oxford.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “US Deflation? New Methods of Forecasting Consumer Prices.” Economic Outlook  33 (1): 33-45, January.

"Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa." Chapter in New Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets: Coping with the Challenges of Financial Globalization, Gill Hammond, Ravi Kanbur and Eswar Prasad (eds.), Bank of England/Edward Elgar (forthcoming, 2009). (also CSAE Working Paper 2008-28, Department of Economics, Oxford, or CEPR Discussion Paper 6992, London, 2008)

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. “Multi-sector inflation forecasting – quarterly models for South Africa.”CSAE Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Oxford WPS/2008-27.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. “New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA.” Department of Economics, Working Papers, Oxford WPS/2008-406.

Aron, Janine and John, Muellbauer. 2008. "The Next Collapse: U.S. Price Inflation," The Economists' Voice 5 (6), Article 9, September (http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol5/iss6/art9). Also collected in Special Issue, Financial Regulation, Financial Crisis, and Bailouts, The Economists' Voice 5(5), September, edited by Joseph Stiglitz, Bradford Delong and  Aaron Edlin.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. “US price deflation on the way.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London  (Oct, 2008)

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and C. Pretorius (SARB). 2006. A Framework For Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price Index: Application to South Africa.”Econometric Society European Meeting (ESEM), Vienna, Austria, August 24 –28, 2006.

Earlier version: Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and C. Pretorius (SARB). “A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price Index: application to South Africa.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-07. (Non-technical Summary 5)

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2004. "Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa." South African Journal of Economics 72 (5): 1-30, December.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa.” CSAE Working Paper Series/2004-09.

With kind permission from Mats Haglund (Statistics Sweden):
Haglund, Mats. 2000. "The South African CPI - the reliability of present practices and some potential for improvements." Mission Report RSASTAT 2000:2, Statistics Sweden, 2000.

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and B. Smit (Bureau for Economic Research). “A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-08.

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and B. Smit (Bureau for Economic Research). “Understanding the Inflation Process in South Africa.” Keynote Address, Eighth Annual Conference on Econometric Modelling for Africa, Stellenbosch University, South Africa, 1-4th July, 2003. (Conference Paper) (Non-technical Summary 4)

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2000. "Inflation and Output Forecasts for South Africa: Monetary Transmission Implications." CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-23. (Non-technical Summary 6)

TRADE AND OPENNESS

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Inflation dynamics and trade openness.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-11 (also CEPR, London, Discussion Paper 6346).

Aron, J and J. Muellbauer. “Inflation dynamics and trade openness.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/417 (July, 2007)

SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNDER DEMOCRACY

Aron, J. “Macroeconomic Policy and its Governance after Apartheid.” Chapter in
 After Apartheid: The Second Decade of Democracy, Kahreen Tebeau and Ian Shapiro (eds.), Yale University, New Haven (forthcoming book, 2009).

Aron, J., B. Kahn (SARB) and G. Kingdon (eds.) South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Oxford University Press (12 chapter book) (forthcoming, March, 2009.)
(see for description and contents http://www.amazon.co.uk/South-African-Economic-Policy-Democracy/dp/0199551464  )

Three chapters in the book:

Aron, J., B. Kahn (SARB) and G. Kingdon. “Overview and Prospects.” Chapter 1 in Aron, J., B. Kahn and G. Kingdon (eds.) South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Oxford University Press (forthcoming, March, 2009.)

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “The Development of Transparent and Effective Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy.” Chapter 3 in Aron, J., B. Kahn and G. Kingdon (eds.) South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Oxford University Press (forthcoming, March, 2009.)

Ajam, T. (AFREC) and  J. Aron. “Transforming Fiscal Governance.” Chapter 4 in Aron, J., B. Kahn and G. Kingdon (eds.) South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Oxford University Press (forthcoming, March, 2009.)

Special Journal Issue on South Africa:

Aron, J. and G. Kingdon. 2007. (Guest Editors) Special issue on South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press 16 (5): 661-667.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2007. “Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994.” in Aron, J. and G. Kingdon. (Guest Editors), Special issue on South African Economic Policy under Democracy, Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press 16 (5): 705-744.

Ajam, T. (AFREC) and  J. Aron. 2007. “Fiscal Renaissance in a Democratic South Africa.” in Aron, J. and G. Kingdon. (Guest Editors), Special issue on South African Economic Policy under Democracy, Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press 16 (5): 745-781.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-07 (also CEPR, London, Discussion Paper 5831). (longer versions of the above JAE article)

Ajam, T. (AFREC) and J. Aron. “Fiscal Renaissance in a Democratic South Africa.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-10 (working paper version of the above JAE article)

MONETARY POLICY AND GROWTH

[SEE ALSO ABOVE UNDER SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNDER DEMOCRACY]

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. “Transparency, Credibility and Predictability of Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting in South Africa.” 23rd Meeting of the European Economic Association, Milan, Italy, August 27-31, 2008. (earlier version: Bank of England/Cornell University workshop on New Developments in Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies, Bank of England, 17-18 July, 2007.)

Aron, J and J. Muellbauer. 2005. "Monetary policy, macro-stability and growth: South Africa’s recent experience and lessons.” World Economics: 6(4): 123-147, December.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2002a. "Interest rate effects on output: evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa." IMF Staff Papers 49 (November, IMF Annual Research Conference): 185-213. (also CEPR, London, Discussion Paper 3595) (Non-technical Summary 7)
See also Chevillon, G., "Comparison of Multi-step GDP Forecasts for South Africa", for a paper that analyzes the forecasting properties of our model, compares it with 30 derived or competing models, and finds that our model is the best for forecasting the GDP of South Africa 4 quarters ahead.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2002. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa”, in Norman Loayza and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (eds) "Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms", Series on Central Banking, Analysis and Economic Policies, Volume 4, Central Bank of Chile, pages 427-475. (also http://www.bcentral.cl/eng/studies/central-banking/v4.htm) (Non-technical Summary 1)

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa.”, Working Paper No 89, Central Bank of Chile, December 2000. (Earlier working paper version)

PERSONAL SECTOR WEALTH ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and J. Prinsloo (SARB). "Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country, South Africa 1970-2003." Chapter 10 in James B. Davies (ed.), Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective, UNU-WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford University Press, October, 2008, pages 196-223.

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and J. Prinsloo (SARB). 2007. " Balance sheet estimates for South Africa's household sector from 1975 to 2005."Working Paper 07/01,Research Department, South African Reserve Bank.

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and J. Prinsloo (SARB). 2006. “Estimating household-sector wealth in South Africa.”  Quarterly Bulletin, South African Reserve Bank, June, 61-72.

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and J. Prinsloo (SARB). “Towards Official Balance Sheet Estimates for South Africa’s Household Sector, from 1975 to 2005."CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-09 (also, United Nations University, WIDER Research Paper 2006:99, November, Helsinki). (Non-technical Summary 10)

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2006. "Estimates of Household Sector Wealth for South Africa, 1970-2003." Review of Income and Wealth (International Association for Research in Income and Wealth) 52: 2 285-308, June.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Revised Estimates of Personal Sector Wealth for South Africa.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-24.(also CEPR, London, Discussion Paper 4646). (contains appendices referred to in the subsequent published article)

WEALTH, CREDIT CONDITIONS, CONSUMPTION AND DEBT

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer.Broad Money Demand, Financial Liberalisation and Wealth in South Africa.” (in progress). (Non-technical Summary 2)

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption in SA.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper (forthcoming, 2008).

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and A. Murphy (Oxford). 2008. “Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and UK Consumption.” 2008 European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Milan, Italy, August 27-31, 2008.

Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and A. Murphy (Oxford). 2006. “Housing Wealth and UK Consumption.” Economic Outlook 30 (4): 11 -20, October.

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08.

"Housing and Personal Wealth in a Global Context." Chapter in James B. Davies (ed.), Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective, UNU-WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford University Press, October, 2008, pages 293-311. (also, United Nations University, WIDER Research Paper 2007-27, November, Helsinki).

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa.” World Bank Economic Review 14 (3): 509-544. (also CEPR, London, Discussion Paper 2656). (Non-technical Summary 8)

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2000. "Financial Liberalisation, Consumption and Debt in South Africa.” CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-22. (Non-technical Summary 9)

Aron, J and J. Muellbauer. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa ", Saving Review, No. 1, South Africa Savings Institute, October 2001. (PDF version) (Website is http://www.savingsinstitute.co.za/initiatives.html#savings)

Aron, J and J. Muellbauer. "Private Saving in South Africa", Quarterly Review, Centre for the Study of Economics and Finance in South Africa (CREFSA), London School of Economics, 1998 no. 4, 26-36. (http://www.lse.ac.uk/Depts/CREFSA/pdf/qr4_98.pdf)

EXCHANGE RATES AND CAPITAL FLOWS

[SEE ALSO ABOVE UNDER SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNDER DEMOCRACY]

Aron, J., Leape, J. (LSE) and L. Thomas (LSE). 2008. “Portfolio Flows; Exchange Rate Policy and Capital Markets in South Africa.” For UNU-WIDER Conference on Southern Engines of Global Growth: China, India, Brazil, and South, Africa, 11-12 July 2008, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (forthcoming in volume through WIDER).

Aron, J., I. Elbadawi and B. Kahn (S.A. Reserve Bank). 2000. "Real and Monetary Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in South Africa." in I. Elbadawi and T. Hartzenberg (eds.), "Development Issues in South Africa", London: MacMillan, Chapter 8.  (earlier version)  (Non-technical Summary 13)

Aron, J. and I. Elbadawi (World Bank). 1999. "Reflections on the South African Rand Crisis of 1996 and its Consequences." CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-13 (technical model under revision for publication)

Aron, J. and M. Ayogu (UCT). 1997. "Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests in Sub-Saharan Africa: Econometric Analysis and Implications for Policy". Journal of African Economies (Special supplement on exchange rates), 6 (3): 150-192. (earlier version focused on South Africa)

Aron, J. "Measuring Currency Misalignment in South Africa: The Importance of Real Shocks and Regime Changes", Quarterly Review, CREFSA, London School of Economics, October, 1997. (http://www.lse.ac.uk/Depts/CREFSA/pdf/qroct97.pdf)

II. Conferences, seminars, invited lectures

United Kingdom

“Transparency, Credibility and Predictability of Monetary Policy in South Africa.” CSAE Conference: “Economic Development in Africa, 2008.” 16-18 March, 2008, St Catherine's College, Oxford, UK.

 “Transparency, Credibility and Predictability of Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting in South Africa.”Invited paper, Bank of England/Cornell University workshop on “New developments in monetary policy in emerging market economies”, Bank of England, 17-18 July, 2007.

"Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption (revised).” Royal Economic Society Conference 2007, Warwick, April 11th-13th 2007. (presented by A.Murphy).

"Trade Openness and Inflation.” CSAE Conference: “Economic Development in Africa.” 19-20 March, 2007, St Catherine's College, Oxford, UK. (http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/conferences).

"Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption.” Macroeconomics Seminar, Department of Economics, Oxford University, 18th October, 2006.

"Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption.”  Seminar at HM Treasury, U.K., 21 September, 2006.

“Estimates of Household Sector Wealth for South Africa, 1970-2003.” CSAE Conference: “Reducing Poverty and Inequality: How can Africa be included?” 19-21 March 2006, St Catherine's College, Oxford, UK.

“Modelling inflation.” 3rd African Central Banking Network Workshop, Department of Economics, Oxford University, 5-9 December, 2005.

“Monetary policy, macro-stability and growth: South Africa’s recent experience and lessons.” CSAE Seminar Series, Department of Economics, Oxford, 22 November, 2005.

Central Bankers and Oxford Academics share perspectives on "Which to prioritise: pro-poor growth or macroeconomic stability?" Dr Ishrat Hussain Governor, State Bank of Pakistan, Prof. John Muellbauer, Nuffield College, Dr C. Adam, Queen Elizabeth House. Chair Christopher Allsopp, Former member, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England. Presented by Oxford University Pakistan Discussion Forum, 19 April 2005, Rhodes House, Oxford.

“Inflation in South Africa.” Presentation for the visit of the Vice-chancellor, Oxford University to the Department of Economics, 10 March, 2005.

“The Governance Environment of Monetary Policy.” 2nd African Central Banking Network Workshop, Department of Economics, Oxford University, 8-10 September, 2004.

“Inflation Targeting and the Relevance of Modelling Inflation in African Countries.” Invited Seminar, Macroeconomics, Policy Division, Department for International Development (DFID), 29 April, 2004.

"Forecasting the Sub-Components of the Consumer Price Index in South Africa.” in “Growth, Poverty Reduction and Human Development in Africa.” CSAE Conference, St. Catherine’s College, Oxford University, 21-22 March, 2004.

“The Governance Environment of Monetary Policy.” 1st African Central Banking Network Workshop, Department of Economics, Oxford University, 24-26th November, 2003.

“Modelling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa.” Staff Seminar, Department of Economics, Oxford University, 13th November, 2003.

“Modelling the Inflation Process in South Africa.” Nuffield Seminar in Econometric Theory and Econometrics, Nuffield College, 16th May, 2003

"Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa.” in "Understanding Poverty and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.” CSAE Conference, St. Catherine’s College, Oxford University, 18-19th March, 2002.

"Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa.” CSAE Seminar Series, Oxford University, 5th February, 2002.

Four papers on DFID research findings, presented jointly with John Muellbauer, at a day-long workshop, “Macroeconomic Policy in South Africa: Recent Findings on Capital Flows and Monetary Policy”, Centre for the Study of Economics and Finance in South Africa (CREFSA), London School of Economics, 23rd November, 2001, for participants from the media, business and financial sectors, and U.K. government and policy bodies.

 “A Multi-Step Inflation Forecasting Model for South Africa", CSAE Seminar Series, Oxford University, 5th June, 2001.

"Monetary Policy Rules and Monetary Policy Transmission in South Africa", Staff Seminar Series, Nottingham University, 11th October, 2000.

"Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa", CSAE Seminar Series, Oxford University, 20th June, 2000.

"Monetary Policy and Monetary Policy Transmission in South Africa", Invited seminar, International Economics Programme, Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, 14th March, 2000.

"Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules In South Africa", CSAE Seminar Series, Oxford, 29th February, 2000.

"Monetary Policy Rules and Monetary Policy Transmission in South Africa", School of Oriental and African Studies, 28th February, 2000.

“Monetary Transmission and Monetary Policy in South Africa”, Econometrics Seminar, Nuffield College, Oxford, 30th November, 1999.

"Financial Liberalisation, Consumption and Debt in South Africa.” Economic Theory and Econometrics Seminar, Nuffield College, Oxford, 29th October, 1999.

Overseas

“New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components.” Seminar, 5th January, 2009, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, USA. (presented by J. Muellbauer).

 “Some issues in modelling and forecasting inflation in SA.” Invited paper. Challenges for Monetary Policy-makers in Emerging Markets. South African Reserve Bank conference and retreat. Limpopo, South Africa, 29-31 October, 2008.

“Portfolio Flows; Exchange Rate Policy and Capital Markets in South Africa.” Paper prepared for UNU-WIDER Conference on Southern Engines of Global Growth: China, India, Brazil, and South, Africa, 11-12 July 2008, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

“Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and UK Consumption.” 2008 European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Milan, Italy, August 27-31, 2008.) (peer-reviewed).

“Transparency, Credibility and Predictability of Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting in South Africa.” 23rd Meeting of the European Economic Association, Milan, Italy, August 27-31, 2008.) (peer-reviewed).

"Recent work on inflation modelling in South Africa." Seminar, Research Department, South African Reserve Bank, 19 October, 2007.

“A Framework For Forecasting The Components Of The Consumer Price Index: Application To South Africa”, Econometric Society European Meeting (ESEM), Vienna, Austria, August 24 –28, 2006. (http://www.eea-esem.com/EEA-ESEM/2006)  (peer-reviewed).

“Estimates Of Household Sector Wealth For South Africa, 1970-2003”, 21st Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA), Vienna, Austria, August 24 – 28, 2006. (http://www.eea-esem.com/EEA-ESEM/2006)  (peer-reviewed).

"Towards official balance sheet estimates for South Africa's household sector." Plenary Session 1: Issues in the Measurement of Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (IARIW), 29th General Conference, Joensuu, Finland, 20 - 26 August, 2006. (http://www.iariw.org/c2006.asp) (peer-reviewed).

“Developments in economic performance and governance of the SA economy since 1994.” Two-part After Apartheid Conference, to be held the 11th-12th of August, 2006 in Cape Town, South Africa, and 27th-28th of April, 2007 at Yale Center for International and Area Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut.

"Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption.” Seminar, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, 31 May, 2006.

"Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country, South Africa 1975-2003." Paper for Session 1 of United Nations-WIDER Project Meeting, “Personal Assets from a Global Perspective”,Helsinki, Finland, 4-6 May 2006. (http://www.wider.unu.edu/)

"Housing and Personal Wealth in a Global Context.”  Paper for Session 5 of United Nations-WIDER Project Meeting, “Personal Assets from a Global Perspective”,Helsinki, Finland, 4-6 May 2006. (http://www.wider.unu.edu/)

"Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption.” Staff  Seminar, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, South Africa, 20 April, 2006.

"Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country, South Africa 1970-2003." Staff  Seminar, Stellenbosch University, South Africa, 19 April, 2006.

“A Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa: 1994-2004.” South African Economic Policy Under Democracy: A 10 Year Review, 27-28 October 2005, University of Stellenbosch. Conference website (http://academic.sun.ac.za/econ/econconf/)

“Modelling the Inflation Process in South Africa.” 59th Econometric Society European Meeting, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 20-24 August, 2004.) (peer-reviewed).

“Measuring Central Bank Transparency in South Africa.” Seminar, Research Department, Bank of Swaziland, jointly with the Economics Association of Swaziland, 27 July, 2003.

“Forecasting Business Cycles.” Staff Seminar, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, 22 July, 2003.

“Measuring Central Bank Transparency in Newly Inflation Targeting Countries.” Staff Seminar, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, 19 July, 2003.

“Modelling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa.” Research Department Seminar, South African Reserve Bank, Conference Centre, 4th December, 2003.

“Forecasting the Sub-components of the CPI in South Africa.” Staff Seminar, Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa, 3rd December, 2003.

“Determinants of Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa”, Invited Address, National Treasury Saving Policy Round Table, CSIR Conference Centre, Pretoria, South Africa, 2nd December, 2003.

“Understanding the Inflation Process in South Africa.” Seminar, International Monetary Fund (Research Division), 8th October 2003.

“Measuring and Forecasting Consumer Price Indices in South Africa.” Staff Seminar, Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, South Africa, 8th August, 2003.

Forum on the IMF paper on the real exchange rate of the rand, Invited participant, Investec Securities and the Economics Association of South Africa, Cape Town, August 7th, 2003.

“Measuring and Forecasting Consumer Price Indices in South Africa.” Staff Seminar, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, South Africa, 7th August, 2003

“Measuring and Forecasting Consumer Price Indices in South Africa.” Joint seminar of the Economic Association of South Africa and the Department of Economics, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa, 5th August, 2003.

 “Understanding the Inflation Process in South Africa.” Keynote Address, Eighth Annual Conference on Econometric Modelling for Africa, Stellenbosch University, South Africa, 1-4th July, 2003.

“Modelling the Inflation Process in South Africa.” Invited seminar, South African Reserve Bank, 5th April, 2003.

" A Multi-Step GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa.” 57th Econometric Society European Meeting, Venice, 25-28 August, 2002.) (peer-reviewed).

"A Multi-Step GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa.” Invited seminar, South African Reserve Bank, 11th April, 2002.

“Forecasting components of the CPI in South Africa.” Invited seminar, South African Reserve Bank, 11th April, 2002.

"Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa.” Second Annual IMF Research Conference, 30 November, 2001.

"Inflation and Output Forecasts for South Africa: Monetary Transmission Implications", 56th Econometric Society European Meeting, Lausanne, 30 August-2 September, 2001.) (peer-reviewed).

 Discussion on DFID research findings at Anglo-American Corporation headquarters, Johannesburg, 23rd March, 2001. Fifteen economists from the private financial sector were invited.

 "Inflation and Output Forecasts for South Africa: Monetary Transmission Implications", Staff Seminar Series, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 23rd March, 2001.

 Workshop on DFID research findings at the South African Reserve Bank, attended by National Treasury representatives, 19-20th March, 2001.

 “Deriving an Indicator of Financial Liberalization: Applications to Consumption and Monetary Policy Rules in South Africa.” Workshop at the World Bank(Southern African Division), March 6, 2001.

“Multi-step Forecasting Models for Inflation: an Application to South Africa.” Workshop at the International Monetary Fund (Research Division), March 5th, 2001

"A Financial Liberalisation Indicator for South Africa", Invited Contribution, The Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA, 27-28 October, 2000.

"Monetary Policy Rules and Monetary Policy Transmission in South Africa", World Congress of the Econometrics Society, Seattle, 11-16 September, 2000.

"A Multi-Step Inflation Forecasting Model for South Africa", Invited Seminar, South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria, South Africa, 6 July, 2000.

"Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa", 5th African Econometrics Society Meeting, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa, 5-7 July, 2000.

"Monetary Transmission and Policy Rules in South Africa." Central Bank of Chile, 3rd Annual Conference on Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, Santiago, 20-21 September, 1999.

"Reflections on the 1996 Rand Crisis and Policy Implications”, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Staff Seminar Series, September 1999.

"Private Saving in South Africa", Staff Seminar Series, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, September, 1999.

"Saving and Wealth in South Africa", Invited Seminar Series, South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria, South Africa, September, 1999.

“Reflections on the 1996 rand crisis and policy implications”, Invited Seminar, Central Bank of Swaziland, September 1999.

"Saving in South Africa", Conference on "Savings in the World: Puzzles and Policies", The World Bank, Washington D.C., 16-18 September, 1998.

“Policy Rules and Bidding Behaviour in the Ethiopian Foreign Exchange Auction", 53rd Econometric Society European Meeting, Berlin, 30 August-2September, 1998. )  (peer-reviewed).

"Financial Liberalisation, Consumption and Debt in South Africa”, 53rd Econometrics Society European Meeting, Berlin, 30th August-2nd September, 1998.)  (peer-reviewed).