Dr Janine Aron

New Resources

Market Integration and Border Effects in Eastern Africa, CSAE working paper
The economics of the Arab Spring, CSAE working paper
Optimal public investment, growth, and consumption: Evidence from African countries, CSAE working paper
Borders that Divide: Education and Religion in Ghana and Togo since Colonial Times, CSAE working paper
CSAE Newsletter 05, Autumn 2011
Political Origins of Financial Structure, CSAE working paper
Insurance products for the poor should not be poor products, iiG Briefing Paper

Research Officer, CSAE

South African Macroeconomic Research Programme
Economics Dept personal web page

Biography

Janine Aron is a James Martin Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School. She is a Research Staff Member at the Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, Oxford and of the ESRC Spatial Economics Centre, at the LSE. She is an Associate Member of Nuffield College, Oxford (from January 2011), and a Research Associate of the Centre for the Study of Economics and Finance in South Africa (CREFSA), LSE. She holds a British Academy Research Development Award (BARDA) : "The policy challenge of volatile exchange rates under inflation targeting: macro- and micro- measures of exchange rate pass-through in South Africa.” The project involves collaborative research with the South African Reserve Bank and economists in two South African Universities. She also researches with John Muellbauer (Nuffield College, Oxford) on inflation modelling and forecasting in South Africa, the US and the UK, and on UK aggregate and regional consumption, debt and housing issues. She has published mainly in the area of monetary and exchange rate policy and macroeconomics in South Africa, but also in countries such as Ethiopia and Zambia. Her recent co-edited book South African Economic Policy Under Democracy was published by Oxford University Press in 2009. Details can be found at http://ideas.repec.org/e/par29.html and at http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/index.php/staff/aron/ . She has had a long association with the CSAE since holding an ESRC Research Fellowship there during 1994-1998, as an Associate Member in 1993/94, and prior to that for four years as a Research Officer. She has been a consultant to the World Bank, IMF, WIDER, Bank of Chile and the African Development Bank, amongst others. She lectures in Oxford in the area of International Finance, and has held Lectureships in Economics at Merton and Jesus Colleges in Oxford.

Publications

Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. "Improving forecast accuracy in an emerging economy, South Africa, by means of changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation." International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming).
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. "New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the USA." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming).
Aron, J., Duca, J., J. Muellbauer, K. Murata and A. Murphy. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US." Review of Income and Wealth (forthcoming).
Aron, J. "Introduction to Special Focus on Exchange Rate Pass-through in Developing and Emerging Markets." Special Focus on Exchange Rate Pass-through, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming 2012).
Aron, J. and R. MacDonald. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Developing and Emerging Markets: a Survey of Conceptual and Policy Issues, and Empirical Findings." Special Focus on Exchange Rate Pass-through, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming 2012).
Aron, J, K. Creamer, J. Muellbauer and N. Rankin. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data." Special Focus on Exchange Rate Pass-through, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming 2012).
Aron, J., Farrell, G., Muellbauer, J. and Sinclair, P.. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa." Special Focus on Exchange Rate Pass-through, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming 2012).
Aron, J. 2011. "Macroeconomic Policy and its Governance after Apartheid." in Kahreen Tebeau and Ian Shapiro (eds.), After Apartheid. Reinventing South Africa? University of Virginia Press (May).
"Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption in South Africa." International Association of Research in Income and Wealth (IARIW)- Statistics South Africa , Conference on Experiences and Challenges in Measuring National Income, Wealth, Poverty, and Inequality in African Countries, September 2011, Cape Town, South Africa. (Aron, J. and J.Muellbauer)
"Improving forecast accuracy in an emerging economy, South Africa, by means of changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation." 65th European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Oslo, Norway, August 25-29, 2011. (Aron, J. and J.Muellbauer) (peer-reviewed).
"New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US." 65th European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Oslo, Norway, August 25-29, 2011. (Aron, J. and J.Muellbauer)
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2011. The regional mortgage possessions outlook: forecasting court orders for the regions of England and Wales. Economic Outlook 33 (1): 33-45, January.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2011. "Modelling and Forecasting with County Court Data: Regional Mortgage Possession Claims and Orders in England and Wales." Spatial Economic Research Centre (SERC), London School of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 0070 SERCDP (February).
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions." Spatial Economic Research Centre (SERC), London School of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 0052 SERCDP (August).
Aron, J., G. Farrell (SARB), J. Muellbauer and Sinclair, P. 2010. “Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper 8153 (December). http://www.cepr.org.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2010. “Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper 7986 (September). http://www.cepr.org.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2010. “New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the USA.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper 7877 (June 2010). http://www.cepr.org.
Aron, J., Duca, J., J. Muellbauer, K. Murata and A. Murphy. 2010. “Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper 7876 (June 2010). http://www.cepr.org.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2010. “Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper 7895 (June). http://www.cepr.org.
Aron, J., Leape, J. (LSE) and L. Thomas (LSE). 2010.“Portfolio Flows; Exchange Rate Policy and Capital Markets in South Africa.” CSAE Conference: “Economic Development in Africa, 2010.” 21-23 March, 2010, St Catherine's College, Oxford, UK.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2010. “Availability and Quality of Mortgage Possessions and Arrears Data.” August. Department of Communities and Local Government, UK: Expert Panel on Housing Markets and Planning Analysis.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2010. “Modelling and forecasting UK mortgage arrears and possessions (NHPAU): Report.” and Summary. Department of Communities and Local Government, UK.
Aron, J., B. Kahn and G. Kingdon (eds.) South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Oxford University Press(12 chapter book) (March, 2009).
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. "Mortgage Possessions Statistics and Outlook: an Independent Review for the UK Minister for Housing/DCLG." Department for Communities and Local Government, UK Government, 31 May 2009. (60 pages). plus "Addendum on Forecasting Arrears and Repossessions." 20 October, 2009.(17 pages).
Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and C. Pretorius. 2009. “A Stochastic Estimation Framework for Components of the South African Consumer Price Index.” South African Journal of Economics 77 (2), June: 282-313.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “US Deflation? New Methods of Forecasting Consumer Prices.” Economic Outlook 33 (1): 33-45, January.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “Some issues in modelling and forecasting inflation in SA.” in Challenges for Monetary Policy-makers in Emerging Markets. South African Reserve Bank Conference Series 2008, Pretoria: South African Reserve Bank, August, 2009, pp. 163-188.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa.” Chapter 15 in New Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets: Coping with the Challenges of Financial Globalization, Gill Hammond, Ravi Kanbur and Eswar Prasad (eds.), Bank of England/Edward Elgar, pp. 275-308.
Ajam, T. and J. Aron. 2009. “Transforming Fiscal Governance.” Chapter 4 in Aron, J., B. Kahn and G. Kingdon (eds.) South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Oxford: Oxford University Press, March 2009, pp. 92-117.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2009. “The Development of Transparent and Effective Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy.” Chapter 3 in Aron, J., B. Kahn and G. Kingdon (eds.) South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Oxford University Press (March, 2009), pp. 58-91.
Aron, J., B. Kahn and G. Kingdon. “Overview and Prospects.” Chapter 1 in Aron, J., B. Kahn and G. Kingdon (eds.) South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Oxford University Press (March, 2009), pp. 1-27.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Some issues in modelling and forecasting inflation in SA.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper 7132, February, 2009, http://www.cepr.org; and also CSAE Working Paper Series WPS/2009-01, Department of Economics,Oxford.
Aron, J., Duca, J., J. Muellbauer, K. Murata and A. Murphy. 2009. “Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: the UK, Japan and the US.” American Economic Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco, 3-5 January 2009. (http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2009/)
Aron, J., Leape, J. and L. Thomas. “Portfolio Flows; Exchange Rate Policy and Capital Markets in South Africa.” For UNU-WIDER Conference on Southern Engines of Global Growth: China, India, Brazil, and South, Africa, 11-12 July 2008, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a more Open Economy in South Africa.” CSAE Working Paper Series WPS/2008-28, Department of Economics,Oxford; and also Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper 6992, 2008, http://www.cepr.org.
Aron, Janine and John, Muellbauer. 2008. "The Next Collapse: U.S. Price Inflation," The Economists' Voice 5 (6), Article 9, September (http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol5/iss6/art9). Also collected in Special Issue, Financial Regulation, Financial Crisis, and Bailouts, The Economists' Voice 5(5), September, edited by Joseph Stiglitz, Bradford Delong and Aaron Edlin.
Aron, Janine and John, Muellbauer. 2008. “New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA.” Department of Economics, Working Paper Series WPS-406, Oxford.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. “Multi-sector inflation forecasting – quarterly models for South Africa.” CSAE Working Paper Series WPS/2008-27, Department of Economics, Oxford.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. "Annotated Code For Ongoing Wealth Data Production." Technical Report for the Research Department, South African Reserve Bank.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. “Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption in SA.” Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, Discussion Paper (forthcoming, 2008).
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. “Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and UK Consumption.” 2008 European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Milan, Italy, August 27-31, 2008.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2008. “Transparency, Credibility and Predictability of Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting in South Africa.” 23rd Meeting of the European Economic Association, Milan, Italy, August 27-31, 2008. (earlier version: Bank of England/Cornell University workshop on New Developments in Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies, Bank of England, 17-18 July, 2007.)
Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and J. Prinsloo. 2008. "Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country: SA, 1975-2005." Chapter 10 in James B. Davies (ed.), Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective, UNU-WIDER Studies in Development Economics, Oxford University Press (October), pages 196-223.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2007. “Inflation dynamics and trade openness.” Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, Working Paper 6346.
Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and C. Pretorius. 2006. “A Framework For Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price Index: Application to South Africa.”Econometric Society European Meeting (ESEM), Vienna, Austria, August 24 –28, 2006. (earlier version: CSAE Working Paper Series WPS/2004-7, Department of Economics, Oxford.)
Aron, J. and G. Kingdon. 2007. (Guest Editors) Special issue on South African Economic Policy Under Democracy, Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press 16 (5): 661-667.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2007. “Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994.” in Aron, J. and G. Kingdon. (Guest Editors), Special issue on South African Economic Policy under Democracy, Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press 16 (5): 705-744.
Ajam, T. and J. Aron. 2007. “Fiscal Renaissance in a Democratic South Africa.” in Aron, J. and G. Kingdon. (Guest Editors), Special issue on South African Economic Policy under Democracy, Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press 16 (5): 745-781.
Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and J. Prinsloo. 2007. " Balance sheet estimates for South Africa's household sector from 1975 to 2005." Working Paper 07/01, Research Department, South African Reserve Bank. (also, United Nations University, WIDER Research Paper 2006:99, Helsinki.)
Aron, J., A. Murphy and J. Muellbauer. 2006. “Housing Wealth and UK Consumption.” Economic Outlook 30 (4): 11 -20, October.
Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and J. Prinsloo. 2006. “Estimating household-sector wealth in South Africa.” Quarterly Bulletin, South African Reserve Bank, June, 61-72.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2006. "Estimates of Household Sector Wealth for South Africa, 1970-2003." Review of Income and Wealth (International Association for Research in Income and Wealth) 52: 2 285-308, June.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. “Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption.” CSAE WPS/2006-08.
Aron, J and J. Muellbauer. 2005. "Monetary policy, macro-stability and growth: South Africa’s recent experience and lessons.” World Economics: 6(4): 123-147, December. (http://www.world-economics-journal.com/)
Aron, J. “The African Economy in 2004.” Chapter 1, p.1-41, African Development Report 2005 (Public Sector Management in Africa), African Development Bank, Oxford University Press.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2004. “Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa.” South African Journal of Economics 72 (5): 1-30, December.
Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and B. Smit (Bureau for Economic Research). “A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa.” CSAE WPS/2004-8.
Aron, J. 2003. “Building Institutions in post-conflict African Economies.” Journal of International Development, (special UNU/WIDER issue on conflict: 'Explaining Violent Conflict: Going Beyond Greed versus Grievance'), 15 (4): 471-485.
Aron, J., J. Muellbauer and B. Smit. 2003. “Understanding the Inflation Process in South Africa.” Keynote Address, Eight Annual Conference on Econometric Modelling for Africa, Stellenbosch University, South Africa, July, 2003.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2002. "Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa”, in Norman Loayza and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (eds) "Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms", Series on Central Banking, Analysis and Economic Policies, Volume 4, Central Bank of Chile, pages 427-475. ISBN # 956-7421-09-9.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2002. “Interest rate effects on output: evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa.” IMF Staff Papers 49 (November, IMF Annual Research Conference): 185-213.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer. 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa”, World Bank Economic Review 14 (3): 509-544.
Aron, J. 2000. " Growth and Institutions: A Review of the Evidence." World Bank Research Observer 15 (1): 99-135.
Aron, J., I. Elbadawi and B. Kahn. 2000. "Real and Monetary Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in South Africa." in I. Elbadawi and T. Hartzenberg (eds.), "Development Issues in South Africa", London: MacMillan, Chapter 8.
Aron, J. and J. Muellbauer, "Inflation and Output Forecasts for South Africa: Monetary Transmission Implications." CSAE WPS/2000.23.
Aron, J. and I. Elbadawi, "Reflections on the South African Rand Crisis of 1996 and its Consequences." CSAE WPS 1999.13.
Aron, J. 1999. "The Zambian Copper Boom and Crash: 1964-80." in D. Bevan, P. Collier and J. Gunning (eds.) Consequences of Temporary Trade Shocks in Developing Countries, Volume 2, Oxford: Oxford University Press, Chapter 8, 259-302.
Aron, J. 1998. Policy Rules and Bidding Behaviour in the Ethiopian Foreign Exchange Auction, Revista de Analisis Economico (Conference issue on auctions and procurements), 13 (1): 213-248.
Aron, J and J. Muellbauer. 1998. "Private Saving in South Africa", Quarterly Review, Centre for the Study of Economics and Finance in South Africa (CREFSA), London School of Economics, no. 4, 26-36.
Aron, J. 1997. "Measuring Currency Misalignment in South Africa: The Importance of Real Shocks and Regime Changes", Quarterly Review, CREFSA, London School of Economics, October.
Aron, J. and M. Ayogu. 1997. "Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests in Sub-Saharan Africa: Econometric Analysis and Implications for Policy". Journal of African Economies (Special supplement on exchange rates), 6 (3): 150-192.
Aron, J. and I. Elbadawi. 1997. "The Parallel Market Premium and Exchange Rate Unification: a Macroeconomic Analysis for Zambia." in Miguel Kiguel, J. Saul Lizondo and Stephen O'Connell (eds.), Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, London: MacMillan and New York: St. Martin's, Chapter 10, 291-332.
Aron, J. 1997. "The Institutional Foundations of Growth." in Stephen Ellis (ed.) Africa Now: People, Policies and Institutions, London: James Currey/Heinemann and Paris: Karthala (French edition), Chapter 6, 93-118.
Aron, J. and I. Elbadawi. 1994. ‘A Typology of Foreign Exchange Auction Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.1395, The World Bank.
Aron, J. and I. Elbadawi. 1994. ‘Foreign Exchange Auction Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa: Dynamic Models for Auction Exchange Rates.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.1396, The World Bank.
Aron, J. 1993. “Regulatory Capture in a Mining Parastatal: Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Limited.” Center for International Development Research Working Paper, Duke University.
Aron, J. and I. Elbadawi. 1992. “Parallel Markets, the Foreign Exchange Auction, and Exchange Rate Unification in Zambia.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.909, The World Bank.
Aron, J., A. Eberhard and M. Gandar, Fuelwood Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa, Biomass and Bioenergy 1(2): 89-98, 1991.

Janine Aron, Lawrence M. Nxumalo and T. Anthony Ford, Molecular Orbital Calculations of the geometries of some Boron Halides. South African Journal of Chemistry 43 (3/4), 120-126 (1990).
Jonny E. Myers, Janine Aron And Ian A. Macun, Asbestos and Asbestos related disease: the South African case. International Journal of Health Services 17(4), 651 665 (1987).
J. Aron, D. Baldwin, H. Marques, J.M. Pratt and P.A. Adams, Hemes and Hemoproteins: Part 1: Preparation and Analysis of the heme containing octapeptide (Microperoxidase 8) and identification of the monomeric form in aqueous solution. Journal of Inorganic Biochemistry 27(4), 227 243 (1986).
Janine Aron, Lionel Hindler and T. Anthony Ford, Molecular Vibrational Constants of some simple Polyatomic Molecules: Coriolis Coupling Constants, Centrifugal Distortion and Mean Amplitudes of Vibration of the Mixed Boron Halides. South African Journal of Chemistry 39, 39 45 (1986).
Janine Aron and T. Anthony Ford, Molecular Vibrational Constants of some simple Polyatomic Molecules, Potential Energy Distributions and Compliance Constants of the Mixed Boron Halides. South African Journal of Chemistry 39, 33 38 (1986).
Aron, Baynes, Bothwell, Lyons, Graham and Torrance, Does Plasma Transferrin regulate Iron Absorption? Scandanavian Journal of Haemotology 35, 451 454 (1985).
J. Aron, J. Bunnell, T.A. Ford, N. Mercau, R Aroca and E.A. Robinson, Molecular Vibrational Constants of some simple Polyatomic Molecules, Valence Force Constants and Compliance Constants of some Halogenated Methanes, Silanes and Germanes. Journal of Molecular Structure Theochem. 110, 361 379 (1984).
N. Mercau, R. Aroca, E.A. Robinson, J. Aron, J. Bunnell and T. Anthony Ford, Molecular Vibrational Constants of some simple Polyatomic Molecules, Methyl, Silyl and Germyl Halides. Journal of Computational Chemistry 5, 427 440 (1984).
Aron, J. and T. Ford, Molecular Vibrational Constants of some simple Polyatomic Molecules, a reappraisal of the Force Constants of the Mixed Boron Halides. South African Journal of Chemistry 35, 129 138 (1982).